LibraryFamily 8 · Chronic Disease Management
Type-2 diabetes long-term outcome predictor
ValidatedActive deploymentRobust evidence
Formally validated with a published Assurance Pack.
Estimates 5-year risk of major diabetes-related complications (cardiovascular, renal, retinal) from longitudinal primary-care records to support care-plan intensification.
Plain-language summary
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Clinical context
- Clinical problem
- Predict a future risk
- Point of care
- Follow-up
- Nature of AI output
- A risk score
- Clinical specialty
- Endocrinology
- Care setting
- Primary care
- Patient population
- Adults with type-2 diabetes followed in primary care.
- Intended use
- Estimates 5-year risk of major diabetes-related complications (cardiovascular, renal, retinal) from longitudinal primary-care records to support care-plan intensification.
Technology
- AI technique
- Classical machine learning
- Input data
- Structured EHR data, Laboratory results
- Output type
- Risk score
- Autonomy level
- Informs a human (advisory)
- Model provenance
- Built in-house
- Model version
- t2d-1.2
- Built on a general-purpose model
- No
Deployment
- Status
- Active deployment
- Country
- Netherlands
- Deployment date
- 1 July 2024
- Sites
- 3
Regulatory & governance
- EU AI Act risk tier
- High-risk
- High-risk basis
- Annex III use case
- Medical device
- No
- EU MDR class
- Not a device
- CE marking
- Not required
- FDA status
- Not applicable
- ISO 14971 risk class
- Medium
- GDPR processing basis
- Public interest
- GDPR DPIA
- Completed
- Data identifiability
- Pseudonymised
- Explainability method
- Intrinsic
- Human oversight model
- GP discusses and confirms care-plan changes with the patient; the AI never adjusts medication on its own.
NICE evidence standards
- ESF tier
- Tier C — treat / diagnose / calculate risk
- Evidence category
- Category 3
Performance summary
- Headline metric
- AUC / AUROC
- Value
- 0.82
- Subgroup performance assessed
- Yes
- Known bias signals
- Slightly lower discrimination in patients > 80; periodic recalibration scheduled.
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Assurance Pack
Validation artefact produced by the AIH Lab review panel.
- Criteria version
- draft-2026.1
- Result
- PASSED
- Issued
- 12 June 2024
- Panel chair
- Prof. Anke Mertens
Evidence records
Studies and evaluations attached to this use case.
External validation
AUC / AUROC: 0.78
Population: External multi-site validation, 10k patients
Subgroup: age 80+
Prospective clinical trial
AUC / AUROC: 0.82
Population: Primary-care diabetic cohort, 25k patients
Contributors
- Deploying organisation
- [demo] Amsterdam UMC · Hospital / health system · Netherlands
- AI vendor
- —
- Product name
- —